Just six months ago, this question would have seemed utterly preposterous: Can Google Cloud Q3 revenue growth reach 100%? But, in the tumultuous AI Revolution, not only is that prospect no longer preposterous, but it has also shifted into the realm of wholly possible.
Then again, what if Google Cloud “fails” to reach 100% growth for Q3 and comes in at, say, “only” 90% when Alphabet releases Q3 numbers on Oct. 28? Well, that would mean Google Cloud is growing more than 3X as fast as Microsoft Cloud and more than 2X as fast as AWS — and as far as “failings” go, that’s the type of shortcoming to which we should all aspire.
So. let’s take a look at the 100% possibility from a couple of angles: first, some quantitative comparisons and then some strategic analysis inside those numbers.
Does Google Cloud’s Growth Trajectory Point to 100% for Q3?
Let’s look at the financial performance of Thomas Kurian’s company across the past four quarters with a specific focus on revenue growth. The table below covers the past four quarters and shows Google Cloud’s revenue, growth rate, and quarter-to-quarter incremental revenue growth.
| Quarter | Growth Rate | Revenue | Quarter-to-Quarter Incremental Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 34% | $15.2B | $1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | 48% | $17.7B | $2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | 63% | $20.0B | $2.3B |
| Q2 2026 | 82% | $24.8B | $4.8B |
Growth Rates Are Defying Gravity
One of the indicators of market leadership is the ability to generate accelerating growth even as the revenue base gets larger. And, as you can see by looking at Google Cloud’s growth rates over the past four quarters, not only is its growth rate climbing as the revenue base gets larger, but also the rate of accelerating growth is rising: Q4 topped Q3 by 14 points, Q1 topped Q4 by 15 points, and Q2 blew past Q1 by 19 points.
At the risk of belaboring the obvious, that’s simply not normal behavior — and it is exactly why, more than nine months ago, I bucked all the conventional wisdom and moved Google Cloud to the #1 spot on the Cloud Wars Top 10 rankings. And, while some observers have tried to peg this explosive performance as simply a function of the rising AI tide lifting all boats, they are ignoring the simple fact that while the other hyperscalers are delivering excellent results, none of them is performing at anything close to Google Cloud’s level.
Quarter-to-Quarter Revenue Growth Shows 100% is Quite Feasible
If you look at the column on the right side of the table, you’ll see that Google Cloud has been doing a phenomenal job over the past year of winning huge chunks of “new” business as measured on sequential quarter-to-quarter growth.
Look at the number for Q2, which shows that Google Cloud added an extraordinary $4.8 billion in incremental revenue in Q2 over Q1, more than 2X as much “new” revenue as it generated for Q1 over Q4. No single account or megadeal is behind that huge increase: instead, Alphabet said the key factors behind the growth surge were (a) existing customers buying far more than they originally committed to, (b) more billion-dollar deals, and (c) lots and lots of new customers.
In that context, it’s reasonable to expect that Google Cloud has a good chance to match that performance in Q3, particularly since the company is continuing to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into AI and cloud infrastructure to try to meet relentless demand. In addition, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai announced with the Q2 results that Google Cloud would begin selling TPU chips to other tech companies — and while that effort is just getting underway and will probably not contribute big numbers for Q3, that is yet another growth driver.
In fact, if Google Cloud is able to match — not exceed but match — that $4.8 billion in quarter-to-quarter incremental revenue for Q3, that would push total Q3 revenue to $29.6 billion and yield a growth rate of 95%.
And to reach 100% growth for Q3, Google Cloud would have to generate incremental revenue of $5.6 billion. Look at the numbers in the right-hand column for the past four quarters and ask yourself: is it reasonable to think they can hit $5.6 billion in Q3?
Force-Multipliers: Ecosystem and Industries
On top of its technological prowess, led by world-class stacks for both AI and cloud, Google Cloud has also built a superb global ecosystem under Kevin Ichhpurani plus a powerful industries GTM organization under Chris Sakalosky. While both of those areas have been instrumental in Google Cloud’s stellar performance over the past few years, both have become even more vital to customers and ongoing customer success as the AI Revolution has begun to transform the global economy.
I believe the efforts being led by Ichhpurani and Sakalosky will continue to drive outsized performance for Google Cloud for the foreseeable future, and could provide the impetus that pushes Q3 growth to at least 95% and perhaps even — as outlandish as it may seem —100%.
