Welcome to the Cloud Wars Minute — your daily cloud news and commentary show. Each episode provides insights and perspectives around the “reimagination machine” that is the cloud.
In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze the extraordinary RPO growth at Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS and what it signals about AI demand.
Highlights
00:03 — We’ve got another example here where, in the greatest growth market the world has ever known, we are working with some big numbers that put the law of big numbers to the test here. So, if you look at the four hyperscalers, and I go in order of the size of their backlog or RPO, you’ve got Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS.
00:29 — So this is fully committed business. It’s fully contracted and not yet recognized as revenue. So this is what’s coming down the road, to look into the pipeline, in the future, these companies have — this isn’t some guesstimate of what they hope they’ll get. This is signed, contracted business. So this is one of the factors, probably the key factor, behind why you see these CapEx numbers approaching or exceeding $200 billion.
01:09 — Now that has led to a couple of these companies entering into the debt markets to try to fund this data center expansion and all that enormous CapEx outlay that they’ve got to go through. In turn, a couple of these companies for a quarter or two had negative cash flows, and that’s got some people on Wall Street unable to comprehend it. The world’s coming to an end. What are we going to do?
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01:46 — I think the perspective is being switched here, right? Traditionally, the idea is bad. You don’t want to have negative cash flow. Okay, that’s pretty basic. I think we got that. The difference is there have never been a market with a size, a total addressable market , anything like this, growing at the rate this is. Look at these latest numbers for the four hyperscalers.
02:23 — Oracle, off a much smaller revenue base, has this huge future business coming in: $638 billion in RPO, growing at 363%. Google Cloud had a huge jump this past Q2, $514 billion in backlog, up 390%, and a resurgent AWS posted its biggest backlog number ever, $496 billion, and I believe that growth rate of 154% for its backlog is much higher than any they’ve reported over the last five or six quarters.
04:07 — So I think it’s significant, but I also think it’s being vastly overblown. I just want to say one more time: $2.3 trillion. Now, that’s not like a TAM figure. Somebody’s saying, “Oh, we think the market for new scooters is going to be $2.3 trillion.” These are four companies, just four , not the whole tech industry, and these are their signed, contracted, committed figures for what they’ve got in their backlog or RPO.
