Welcome to the Cloud Wars Minute — your daily cloud news and commentary show. Each episode provides insights and perspectives around the “reimagination machine” that is the cloud.
In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze hyperscaler Q4 numbers and reveal why growth rates matter more than size right now.
Highlights
00:02— We’ve got the final hyperscaler numbers in now, so we can do some comparisons here. AWS reported a very strong Q4 numbers late last week. I want to talk about that in two contexts. First of all, those numbers themselves and the very nice performance AWS put together.
00:42 — The second one, though, is relative to its big competitors, specifically Google Cloud and Microsoft. AWS, in spite of good numbers itself in Q4, continues to fall behind the pace being set by the leaders, particularly Google Cloud. Its revenue is up 24% to $35.6 billion. I think that’s about a $142 billion annualized run rate.
01:44 — Very impressive, excellent growth rate. Each quarter this year, their growth rate has gone up: Q1, 17%; then 17.5%; then 20%; and now 24%. Best quarter in more than three years for them. And their backlog, they said, was up 40% to $244 billion. But at the same time, Google Cloud’s explosive Q4 numbers show that they have a 48% growth rate versus AWS’s 24%.
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02:16 — That’s twice as much. So AWS is twice as big as Google Cloud, but Google Cloud is growing twice as fast. The growth rate now — 48% in Q4 for Google Cloud, 26% for Microsoft Cloud, and AWS 24% — that is really an outlier there. One is in incremental quarter-over-quarter revenue. So the revenue in Q3, then look at the revenue in Q4.
03:02 — AWS is in the lead: $2.6 billion incremental revenue in Q4 versus Q3. Google Cloud, $2.5 billion. Microsoft Cloud, $2.4 billion. AWS is twice as big as Google Cloud, but Google Cloud matched them on this incremental new growth. Microsoft is three times bigger than Google Cloud, but Google Cloud actually exceeded, by a little bit, what Microsoft did in Q4 over Q3.
04:27 — Those numbers in any other industry would absolutely be astonishing, unprecedented. In the Cloud Wars, though, as good as those AWS numbers are, it’s only third-best. Oracle is expected to grow 40% to 44% in numbers that will come out in about a month, when it reports its most recent quarter. Microsoft is bigger than AWS, and it’s growing faster.
